Black Swan Events: Why the Unexpected Changes How We See Our Lives


When something unexpected changes our lives, does it change who we are, or does it change how we understand who we've become?

Looking back over a lifetime, it's remarkable how many important events were never part of our plans.

Some were welcome surprises. Others brought disappointment, uncertainty, or lasting consequences. A few changed the direction of our lives so completely that we could scarcely imagine what might have happened without them.

Yet something else happens as time passes.

We begin to see those experiences differently.

An event that once seemed like an unfortunate interruption may eventually become a defining moment in our story. Something we barely noticed at the time may turn out to have influenced years of decisions.

Our past doesn't necessarily change, but our understanding of it does.

What Is a Black Swan Event?

The concept of a black swan event was popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable.

A black swan event generally has three characteristics:

  • It is an extreme outlier, lying beyond what ordinary expectations would lead us to anticipate.

  • It has an unusually significant impact.

  • Afterward, people develop explanations that make the event appear more predictable than it actually was.

The third characteristic is particularly interesting.

Once something has happened, we tend to look backward and identify the circumstances that led to it.

We connect events, recognize patterns, and construct explanations.

Sometimes those explanations are useful. But they can also create the illusion that we should have known what was coming.

Knowing what happened is not the same as having been able to predict it.

The Unexpected Events in Our Own Lives

Not every unexpected personal experience qualifies as a true black swan event.

Yet smaller, unpredictable moments can have enormous consequences for the individuals involved.

Consider how often our lives are influenced by circumstances we never anticipated.

A conversation introduces us to someone who becomes important in our future.

A job opportunity appears because another person happened to make a particular decision.

An illness, accident, or unexpected loss changes what we thought the coming years would look like.

Even the place and circumstances of our birth influence opportunities and experiences long before we begin making decisions for ourselves.

We may eventually recognize these moments as turning points.

But while we were living through them, we often had no idea how significant they would become.

Do We Attract What Happens to Us?

One popular idea, often called the law of attraction, suggests that our thoughts and attitudes influence what we bring into our lives.

There is a practical truth worth considering here.

Our attitudes can influence our behavior, our relationships, and the opportunities we recognize.

A person who approaches others with curiosity and kindness may develop relationships that someone more withdrawn or distrustful might never experience.

Our expectations can also influence the choices we make.

But that doesn't mean we attract everything that happens to us.

Unexpected illness, accidents, economic disruption, and countless other circumstances cannot reasonably be explained as consequences of someone's attitude or thoughts.

Nor should we assume that people who experience tragedy somehow brought it upon themselves.

Life is more complicated than that.

Our attitudes influence how we participate in life, but they do not give us control over everything life brings.

Recognizing this distinction allows us to accept responsibility for our choices without assuming responsibility for every circumstance we encounter.

Why Hindsight Changes the Story

One of the most fascinating things about memory is that we don't simply retrieve the past exactly as it happened.

We remember it through the perspective of the person we are today.

Our experiences, beliefs, emotions, and accumulated knowledge influence how we interpret earlier events.

A decision that once seemed like a mistake may look different after we understand its long-term consequences.

A relationship we thought we understood may take on another meaning years later.

An unexpected event that disrupted our plans may eventually become central to the story we tell about how our lives developed.

The event itself hasn't changed.

What has changed is our understanding of its place in our lives.

This raises another interesting question.

When we tell our life stories, are we describing what happened, or are we explaining what we now believe those experiences meant?

Perhaps we are doing both.

We organize our memories into a story that makes sense to us today. As our perspective changes, that story changes with it.

The Difference Between Finding Meaning and Believing Everything Was Meant to Happen

There is comfort in believing that everything happens for a reason.

It suggests that even the most difficult experiences belong to a larger pattern.

But I think we should distinguish between an event having a predetermined purpose and our ability to find meaning in it afterward.

Not every tragedy leads to something better.

Not every disappointment turns into an opportunity.

Some experiences remain painful, even after many years.

Yet we may still learn something from them, reconsider our priorities, or develop a deeper understanding of ourselves and others.

That doesn't mean the event was necessary.

It means our relationship with the experience can continue to evolve.

Sometimes the meaning we discover is not something that existed before the event.

It is something we develop through reflection, memory, and the choices we make afterward.

Chance, Choice, and the Person We Become

Our lives emerge from a complicated relationship between circumstances and decisions.

We cannot choose every event that affects us.

We cannot anticipate every consequence of the decisions we make.

And we cannot always recognize which moments will eventually matter most.

But we can continue examining our experiences and reconsidering what they mean.

Perhaps that is one of the more valuable aspects of growing older.

We have a longer view of our lives.

We can recognize connections that were invisible when we were younger. We can see how unexpected events influenced choices, relationships, and opportunities that followed.

And sometimes we discover that the story we once told ourselves no longer explains everything we have come to understand.

Our Pasts Change as We Change

I have often thought about how differently we see our lives when we look backward.

The person who experienced an event years ago is not quite the same person who remembers it today.

We have learned things, changed our minds, experienced losses, developed relationships, and reconsidered assumptions.

Those changes influence the meaning we assign to our memories.

Perhaps the most significant consequence of an unexpected event isn't always what happened at the time.

Sometimes it is how that event continues to influence our understanding of ourselves.

Black swan events remind us that the future can be far less predictable than we imagine.

Our personal histories remind us of something equally important.

We may not control everything that becomes part of our story, but the meaning of that story can continue changing for as long as we do.

These reflections connect with themes explored in my book, Embrace Life's Randomness: Your Path to Personal Reinvention and Positive Change, including the relationship between chance, choice, memory, and the unexpected events that shape our lives.

Originally published October 16, 2022. Revised and expanded October 2026.

Brent M. Jones

Source: https://connectedeventsmatter.com/stories/...

Where Does a Lifetime of Thinking Take Us?


All our waking lives, we try to turn scattered events into a story. Every night, the dreaming mind takes some of that story apart.

We assume morning is the point, when we wake and put ourselves back together. But someday there will be a final night. Whether anything follows it is a question none of us can answer with certainty.

Perhaps the more immediate question is why the mind spends so much of a lifetime practicing what it feels like when the story no longer has to stay intact.

What Are Dreams Actually Doing?

Dreams have always fascinated me because they seem both intensely personal and strangely careless with the facts of our lives.

Someone we knew forty years ago appears in a house we didn't live in until twenty years later. A person who has died is suddenly alive. Something that once seemed enormously important becomes incidental, while a forgotten detail assumes tremendous importance.

Dreams don't respect chronology. They don't preserve our carefully constructed understanding of ourselves. They take pieces of our lives and rearrange them.

I used to think that perhaps this was another way the mind searched for meaning. But I am less convinced of that now.

We don't need dreams to reconsider our lives.

We do that consciously.

An event that meant one thing to us at thirty may mean something entirely different at sixty or eighty. The event hasn't changed. We have.

We have accumulated experience. We have learned things. We have known more people. We have made mistakes. We have discovered that some things we once considered terribly important weren't very important at all, while seemingly insignificant moments affected the direction of our lives.

That kind of understanding requires reflection.

Dreams seem to do something different.

They blur. They fragment. They distort.

So perhaps we are asking dreams to perform the wrong job when we expect them to explain our lives.

Maybe Understanding Isn't the Point

Suppose something happens that affects us deeply.

We think about it repeatedly. We replay the conversation. We imagine what we should have said. We reconsider what someone else meant. If it was wonderful, we may want to hold onto it. If it was painful, we may desperately want to understand it well enough to finally let it go.

Then we sleep.

The event may appear in a dream, but rarely as it actually happened. The mind borrows pieces of it and mixes them with other memories, people and places.

What if that distortion isn't intended to produce clarity?

Perhaps there is a difference between understanding an experience and loosening our attachment to it.

Our conscious mind may say:

This happened. This is why it mattered. This is what I learned from it.

The dreaming mind seems perfectly willing to tear that orderly explanation apart.

Maybe sleep isn't teaching us what an experience means. Perhaps it is helping the experience lose some of its power over us.

Eventually, something that once demanded our attention becomes something we can remember without needing to live through it again.

The event still mattered.

We simply don't need to hold it quite so tightly.

And Then There Is Death

That thought leads me somewhere I can't prove but can't easily dismiss.

What if this loosening is somehow connected to the fact that we are mortal?

I believe the individual continues after death. I cannot prove that. Part of the reason I believe it is quite simple: I want it to be true, and I hope it is true.

Wanting, hoping, believing and knowing are different things.

Yet they are also deeply human things.

We often begin by wanting something to be true. We may come to believe that it is true. Then we live with the hope that our belief corresponds to something beyond what we can presently know.

Death may be the greatest example.

Either something of us continues or it doesn't. I believe something does. But believing that raises another question.

If we are moving toward some other existence, why do dreams spend so much time recycling the trivia of this one?

Why the old house?

Why someone we haven't thought about for decades?

Why the absurd mixture of people who never knew one another?

Why does a brain capable of maintaining such a powerful sense of self spend part of every night dismantling it?

Perhaps dreams aren't showing us where we're going.

Perhaps they are doing something to what we will eventually leave behind.

The Mystery Inside Our Heads

The human brain makes the question even more difficult.

The old claim that we use only a small percentage of our brains isn't supported by neuroscience. Our brains are active in enormously complicated ways, even when we aren't consciously thinking about anything.

But correcting that misconception doesn't remove the mystery.

The brain contains tens of billions of neurons and an almost incomprehensible number of connections. From that physical structure somehow emerge memory, imagination, love, fear, language, dreams, identity and consciousness itself.

We know a great deal about the brain.

We still don't fully understand how all of that becomes us.

Sometimes the intricate networks of the brain even remind me of the structure we see throughout the universe. Similarity isn't evidence that the two have some hidden connection. But the image is difficult to ignore.

The organ through which we attempt to understand the universe is itself something we do not completely understand.

That should leave room for humility.

How Do We Know What We Know?

This conversation led me to another question.

How do I know the things I think I know?

I have read an enormous number of books. I have spent a lifetime thinking about what I have experienced and learned. At different times in my life, I have had very intelligent friends who caused me to think differently.

But ask me to identify precisely where much of my understanding came from and I couldn't do it.

There isn't a book I can pull from a shelf and say, There. That's where I learned to think this way.

There isn't one conversation.

There isn't one experience.

Somewhere along the way, all those books, conversations, relationships, mistakes, successes, disappointments and years of reflection stopped being separate sources of information.

They became part of the person doing the thinking.

Perhaps that is one of the things we mean by wisdom.

We don't carry around an inventory of everything that taught us what we know. Experience becomes integrated into us so completely that we encounter a new idea and simply recognize something in it.

But today's conversation made me realize that this explanation is incomplete.

The result of thinking may depend on the person doing the thinking.

But it may also depend on how the thinking is directed.

Where We Point the Mind

We can spend years thinking about the same event without understanding it differently.

Repetition isn't necessarily reflection.

We can rehearse a grievance until it becomes stronger. We can revisit an accomplishment until it becomes more important than it deserves to be. We can keep asking why someone hurt us and never ask what the experience eventually taught us about ourselves.

The mind can travel a great distance without going anywhere useful.

Direction matters.

A question can change the direction.

Why did this happen to me?

produces one path of thought.

What did this change in me?

produces another.

What does this mean now that I couldn't have understood then?

takes us somewhere else again.

Perhaps this is one reason conversation matters. Another person doesn't necessarily give us the answer. Sometimes they simply turn the question slightly.

Then everything we already know approaches the problem from a different direction.

The understanding was not entirely supplied by the other person. It couldn't have been. They haven't lived our life.

But we might never have arrived at that particular thought without the direction the conversation provided.

Perhaps That Is What Happened Here

I began by wondering what influences our dreams.

That became a question about whether dreams clarify our lives or simply chop them into pieces.

That led to wondering whether repeatedly fragmenting our experiences eventually helps us loosen our attachment to them.

And that led to death.

Then consciousness.

Then belief.

Then hope.

Then the extraordinary complexity of the brain.

And finally to the question of how we understand any of these things in the first place.

None of those questions answered the one before it.

They redirected it.

Perhaps that is how some of our deepest thinking actually happens.

We imagine that wisdom means accumulating answers. Maybe a considerable part of it is learning which question to ask next.

A lifetime supplies the material.

Experience changes the person examining it.

Reflection gives that person an opportunity to reconsider what the material means.

And other people, books, conversations and sometimes even unexpected questions change the direction from which we look at it.

Dreams may scatter the pieces every night.

But when morning comes, it is the conscious mind that decides which pieces deserve another look.

Perhaps understanding comes not simply from everything that has happened to us, nor from everything we have learned.

It comes from who all of that has made us, combined with where we choose to direct our thinking next.

See these articles below if you enjoyed this one

Source: https://connectedeventsmatter.com/stories/...

When You Start Noticing More, but Say “So What?”



There’s a point where you start to notice more.

Not in a dramatic way.
Just in small moments.

A pause. A reaction. A thought you didn’t question before.

You see it more clearly than you used to.

And sometimes the first response is simple:

So what.

I’ve been thinking about that more lately.

For most of my life, my focus was on a career.
There was structure. Progress. A clear sense of what counted as success.

And in many ways, it worked.

But looking back, it feels less connected to who I think I was trying to become.

The years I’ve spent writing feel different. Closer, in some way, to something I had in mind but didn’t fully understand at the time.

Not more successful. Just more aligned.

What’s changed isn’t everything around me.

It’s the way I notice what’s already there.

Small moments are easier to see now. They don’t pass as quickly.


There’s more space around them.

But that creates a different kind of question.

If you notice more, what does that actually change?

You can have a moment of clarity.
An insight. A quiet realization that something could be adjusted.

And still walk right past it.

This is where the idea of reinvention shifts.

It’s not about breaking free from who you used to be in a dramatic way.

It’s about what you do with what you now see.

For a long time, growth felt like adding something.

A new direction. A new identity. A better version of yourself just ahead.

Now it feels different.

Less about adding. More about refining.

Maybe that’s what these small moments are for.

Not to impress anyone. Not to create visible change right away.

But to give you something quieter.

A chance to adjust.

To respond slightly differently. To speak more carefully. To notice where you’re still reacting out of habit instead of intention.

There isn’t always a visible result.

Sometimes nothing changes outwardly at all.

But something shifts in how you carry yourself through the next moment.

That may not feel like much.

But it’s not nothing.

Maybe the value isn’t in the moment itself.

It’s in what becomes possible because you saw it.

Source: https://connectedeventsmatter.com/stories/...

Gratitude Before Happiness: When Meaning Leads, Joy Follows →


Gratitude often comes before happiness—not the fleeting kind, but the kind rooted in purpose. It shows up when appreciation turns outward and inspires us to help others.

Ralph Waldo Emerson once said:
“The purpose of life is not to be happy: it is to be useful, to be honorable, to be compassionate, to have it make some difference that you have lived and lived well.”

That view challenges our modern idea of happiness. In its older, nobler sense, happiness wasn’t about ease or comfort—it was about self-fulfillment, about living well and with purpose.

Scottish philosopher Thomas Carlyle questioned whether Emerson was quoted accurately, but his own reflections echoed the same spirit. Carlyle warned against shallow happiness and spoke instead of blessedness—a spiritual fulfillment that comes from rising above self-interest.
He called it “the happiness of heroes”—a deeper joy that comes when we stop chasing happiness directly and begin living for something greater.

This is a timely idea. Consider the line:
“Poverty exists not because we cannot feed the poor, but because we cannot satisfy the rich.”

That quote reminds us that the pursuit of “more” rarely satisfies. The insatiability of greed may only confirm that true happiness isn’t found in what we acquire, but in what we give.

Rather than asking, “What makes me happy?”
It might be more useful to ask, “What makes my life feel meaningful or aligned?”

Happiness often follows.

Rather than asking, “What makes me happy?” It might be more useful to ask, “What makes my life feel meaningful or aligned?” That shift—from chasing happiness to noticing meaning—is where gratitude plays a quiet but powerful role.

Gratitude isn't just a pleasant feeling; it's a practice that reorients us toward what’s already working, already valuable, already enough. When we pause to appreciate what we have, we stop waiting for life to deliver something else before we feel fulfilled. This presence, this awareness, grounds us in what matters. It opens us to energy, clarity, and connection. Even in the midst of challenges, the ability to feel thankful restores a sense of strength and perspective.

Gratitude reminds us that joy is often not in the pursuit of more, but in the recognition of enough. And from that recognition flows the kind of inspiration that leads to deeper conversations, kinder actions, and a richer, more grounded life.

The Eternal Question: Is Our Soul Truly Immortal? →

"Is Our Soul Eternal? Exploring Heaven and the Universe"

Introduction

Is our soul eternal? How can we know for sure? For centuries, parents have advised their children with a familiar promise: “Be good, son, if you want to go to heaven.” But what does it mean to be good? Is it about our actions, our thoughts, or something deeper?

Attitude vs. Action: The Promise of Heaven

The advice to "be good" often centers on maintaining a positive attitude—a smile in the face of adversity. But does simply being positive guarantee a place in heaven? Is goodness a matter of attitude, or does it require action, integrity, and compassion?

Parents may say, “Be good, son, and you will go to heaven,” but this raises profound questions. Does the value of what we learn or the help we offer to others matter? Does our willingness to help reflect our growth, or is it solely because others need assistance?

Kipling's Wisdom: The Promise of Manhood

Rudyard Kipling offered his son a different kind of promise in his poem “IF”:

“Yours is the Earth and everything in it,
And, what is more, you’ll be a Man, my son!”

Kipling's promise was about becoming a man—a concept of maturity, strength, and integrity. But unlike the promise of heaven, this was something that could be achieved through character and resilience. The father promising heaven offers something he cannot prove or deliver.

The Question of the Soul's Eternity

If the soul is eternal, what does that mean for us? Do our actions and experiences matter in an eternal context? Some religions teach that the soul returns after death and reunites with a resurrected body, while others suggest the soul may exist without the body, experiencing a spiritual existence.

Philosophers like Plato and Aristotle have long pondered the existence of the soul, each offering insights that continue to influence the debate. In the 20th century, philosopher Will Durant suggested that the soul is an integral part of human existence, though he was skeptical of its survival beyond death.

Durant's Doubt and the Essence of the Soul

Will Durant, a great admirer of life and knowledge, struggled with the concept of the soul's immortality. Despite his passion for exploring human history in his monumental work "The Story of Civilization," he leaned toward the idea that the soul dies with the body.

Yet, Durant’s reflections are compelling because they reveal a tension between his love of life and his doubt. He saw life as a river—a flow of experience from an unknown beginning to an abrupt end. But what if the river doesn’t end? What if it continues in another form?

The Dimensions of Existence

Modern science offers new perspectives. Mathematician Theodor Kaluza proposed a concept of multiple dimensions beyond the three spatial ones we experience. String theorists have since expanded this idea, suggesting that our reality may include ten or even eleven dimensions. Could our souls exist in these other dimensions, continuing beyond physical death?

Seeing life metaphorically as a river may be poetic, but it assumes a starting point and an end. What if life is part of a larger, continuous flow that we only partially understand?

My Perspective on Eternity

I believe the soul continues after death and is eternal. This conclusion is not just influenced by the thoughts of great thinkers like Durant or the possibilities of string theory but also by my religious beliefs.

To me, the soul is more than a byproduct of consciousness—it is the essence of who we are, a spark of awareness that continues to learn, grow, and experience beyond the limitations of the physical world. Whether viewed through the lens of philosophy, religion, or science, the soul remains one of the greatest mysteries of existence.

Final Thoughts

In a world that measures so much by what we can see and touch, the question of the soul challenges us to consider something beyond the physical. Whether we believe in an eternal soul or not, the journey to understand it pushes us to explore the depths of our own humanity.

"We are not human beings having a spiritual experience; we are spiritual beings having a human experience." - Pierre Teilhard de Chardin

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