Black Swan Events: Why the Unexpected Changes How We See Our Lives

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When something unexpected changes our lives, does it change who we are, or does it change how we understand who we've become?

Looking back over a lifetime, it's remarkable how many important events were never part of our plans.

Some were welcome surprises. Others brought disappointment, uncertainty, or lasting consequences. A few changed the direction of our lives so completely that we could scarcely imagine what might have happened without them.

Yet something else happens as time passes.

We begin to see those experiences differently.

An event that once seemed like an unfortunate interruption may eventually become a defining moment in our story. Something we barely noticed at the time may turn out to have influenced years of decisions.

Our past doesn't necessarily change, but our understanding of it does.

What Is a Black Swan Event?

The concept of a black swan event was popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable.

A black swan event generally has three characteristics:

• It is an extreme outlier, lying beyond what ordinary expectations would lead us to anticipate.

• It has an unusually significant impact.

• Afterward, people develop explanations that make the event appear more predictable than it actually was.

The third characteristic is particularly interesting.

Once something has happened, we tend to look backward and identify the circumstances that led to it.

We connect events, recognize patterns, and construct explanations.

Sometimes those explanations are useful. But they can also create the illusion that we should have known what was coming.

Knowing what happened is not the same as having been able to predict it.

The Unexpected Events in Our Own Lives

Not every unexpected personal experience qualifies as a true black swan event.

Yet smaller, unpredictable moments can have enormous consequences for the individuals involved.

Consider how often our lives are influenced by circumstances we never anticipated.

A conversation introduces us to someone who becomes important in our future.

A job opportunity appears because another person happened to make a particular decision.

An illness, accident, or unexpected loss changes what we thought the coming years would look like.

Even the place and circumstances of our birth influence opportunities and experiences long before we begin making decisions for ourselves.

We may eventually recognize these moments as turning points.

But while we were living through them, we often had no idea how significant they would become.

Do We Attract What Happens to Us?

One popular idea, often called the law of attraction, suggests that our thoughts and attitudes influence what we bring into our lives.

There is a practical truth worth considering here.

Our attitudes can influence our behavior, our relationships, and the opportunities we recognize.

A person who approaches others with curiosity and kindness may develop relationships that someone more withdrawn or distrustful might never experience.

Our expectations can also influence the choices we make.

But that doesn't mean we attract everything that happens to us.

Unexpected illness, accidents, economic disruption, and countless other circumstances cannot reasonably be explained as consequences of someone's attitude or thoughts.

Nor should we assume that people who experience tragedy somehow brought it upon themselves.

Life is more complicated than that.

Our attitudes influence how we participate in life, but they do not give us control over everything life brings.

Recognizing this distinction allows us to accept responsibility for our choices without assuming responsibility for every circumstance we encounter.

Why Hindsight Changes the Story

One of the most fascinating things about memory is that we don't simply retrieve the past exactly as it happened.

We remember it through the perspective of the person we are today.

Our experiences, beliefs, emotions, and accumulated knowledge influence how we interpret earlier events.

A decision that once seemed like a mistake may look different after we understand its long-term consequences.

A relationship we thought we understood may take on another meaning years later.

An unexpected event that disrupted our plans may eventually become central to the story we tell about how our lives developed.

The event itself hasn't changed.

What has changed is our understanding of its place in our lives.

This raises another interesting question.

When we tell our life stories, are we describing what happened, or are we explaining what we now believe those experiences meant?

Perhaps we are doing both.

We organize our memories into a story that makes sense to us today. As our perspective changes, that story changes with it.

The Difference Between Finding Meaning and Believing Everything Was Meant to Happen

There is comfort in believing that everything happens for a reason.

It suggests that even the most difficult experiences belong to a larger pattern.

But I think we should distinguish between an event having a predetermined purpose and our ability to find meaning in it afterward.

Not every tragedy leads to something better.

Not every disappointment turns into an opportunity.

Some experiences remain painful, even after many years.

Yet we may still learn something from them, reconsider our priorities, or develop a deeper understanding of ourselves and others.

That doesn't mean the event was necessary.

It means our relationship with the experience can continue to evolve.

Sometimes the meaning we discover is not something that existed before the event.

It is something we develop through reflection, memory, and the choices we make afterward.

Chance, Choice, and the Person We Become

Our lives emerge from a complicated relationship between circumstances and decisions.

We cannot choose every event that affects us.

We cannot anticipate every consequence of the decisions we make.

And we cannot always recognize which moments will eventually matter most.

But we can continue examining our experiences and reconsidering what they mean.

Perhaps that is one of the more valuable aspects of growing older.

We have a longer view of our lives.

We can recognize connections that were invisible when we were younger. We can see how unexpected events influenced choices, relationships, and opportunities that followed.

And sometimes we discover that the story we once told ourselves no longer explains everything we have come to understand.

Our Pasts Change as We Change

I have often thought about how differently we see our lives when we look backward.

The person who experienced an event years ago is not quite the same person who remembers it today.

We have learned things, changed our minds, experienced losses, developed relationships, and reconsidered assumptions.

Those changes influence the meaning we assign to our memories.

Perhaps the most significant consequence of an unexpected event isn't always what happened at the time.

Sometimes it is how that event continues to influence our understanding of ourselves.

Black swan events remind us that the future can be far less predictable than we imagine.

Our personal histories remind us of something equally important.

We may not control everything that becomes part of our story, but the meaning of that story can continue changing for as long as we do.

These reflections connect with themes explored in my book, Embrace Life's Randomness: Your Path to Personal Reinvention and Positive Change, including the relationship between chance, choice, memory, and the unexpected events that shape our lives.

Originally published October 16, 2022. Revised and expanded October 2026.

Brent M. Jones

Some Things Are Worth Keeping

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The objects we inherit can carry more than memories.

I inherited this old Remington typewriter years ago.

It is a Remington Standard No. 30, a machine from an era when a typewriter like this was a serious working tool. Someone once sat in front of it, pressed those keys, and used it to put words and numbers onto paper.

Today, of course, there are much easier ways to write.

So why did I keep it?

Because not everything we value needs to remain useful.

Some objects become important because of where they came from, who used them, or the memories and connections they represent. Their practical purpose may disappear while their personal meaning grows.

This typewriter became one of those objects for me.

What We Pass Along

Eventually, I gave the typewriter to my youngest son.

By then I wasn't really giving him an old piece of office equipment. I was passing along something that had existed before either of us owned it, had come into my life, stayed with me for a time, and was now becoming part of his.

I think that's one of the interesting things about inherited objects.

Their value isn't necessarily financial. Sometimes their real value is that they provide a physical connection between people and different periods of their lives.

A typewriter becomes more than a typewriter.

A watch becomes more than a watch.

A photograph becomes more than a photograph.

The object stays essentially the same. What changes is the meaning we attach to it.

Some Things Don't Need to Be Useful

We live in a time when replacing things is easy. When something becomes outdated, inefficient, or unnecessary, getting rid of it often makes perfect sense.

But usefulness isn't the only measure of value.

Some things deserve to be kept because they remind us where we came from, who came before us, or what we want someone after us to remember.

I kept this old typewriter for years.

Then I gave it to my son.

Perhaps that's what keeping something sometimes means. Not holding onto it forever, but knowing when it's time for someone else to become part of its story.

I don't need this typewriter to write anymore.

But I'm glad its story didn't end with me.

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